The 2024 presidential election promises to be volatile, and that volatility will doubtlessly carry over to your stock portfolio. Historically, elections can double stock market volatility, depending on a handful of variable factors, which makes election stocks important to watch. But, while volatility might spike, early moves now can position your portfolio to win no matter who secures a presidential victory.
A handful of hot topics surrounding the election promise to push shares in sector-specific stocks higher. With current levels being where they are and plenty of time until November, building a portfolio of some of those stocks today might offer significant returns before the election results come in. And, if you’re willing to stomach the volatility, some of those same election stocks could be 2024’s biggest winners if the “right” candidate gets into office.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
Semiconductor stocks were hot news this year, and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) promises to be one election stock particularly positioned for upside no matter who wins the election. Though Biden’s CHIP Act has seen some successes, there’s a long way to go before we achieve semiconductor independence. As much as 90% of the global advanced semiconductor supply comes from TSMC, making it a focal point in ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
In either case, the CHIPS Act saw TSMC break ground on two new US-based production plants. But progress is slower than expected, and, in the words of author Chris Miller, “Both Washington and Beijing are fixated on controlling the future of computing. To a frightening degree, that future is dependent on a small island that Beijing considers a renegade province and America has committed to defend by force.”
These factors ultimately make TSMC a focal point of American semiconductor initiatives and, by extension, a key election stock even if the company itself goes unnamed in debates and national conversation. Anchoring a 2024 presidential election portfolio with a solid stock like TSMC is one of the safest bets you can make.
2024 Presidential Election Stocks: ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT)
Though electric vehicle (EV) popularity dipped this year, much of the national conversation still centers on sustainability and renewability. And, at today’s current share pricing, ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE:CHPT) is an ideal election stock to capture solid EV upside. We’ve already seen the Biden administration offer a slew of tax benefits to EV owners, the net industry outcome of which remains up in the air. On the other hand, Trump and the team’s promise to gut EV initiatives could make manufacturers like CHPT less liable to create new charging stations and EV peripherals, making existing infrastructure all the more valuable and in demand.
Investors began avoiding CHPT and sister companies like the plague throughout 2023, sending shares plummeting. But, in the short term, that represents an opportunity. The company’s shares are priced right around penny stock territory. But, if rate cut projections hold true, CHPT could rapidly expand its current network cheaply and effectively in the coming months. That expansion could even precede the 2024 presidential election, positioning CHPT as a strong election stock no matter the outcome.
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP)
U.S. infrastructure is increasingly important to politicians on both sides of the aisle, and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (NYSE:BIP) is one of the few all-encompassing infrastructure stocks available to retail traders. Rather than capturing infrastructure upside by buying shares in construction companies like Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), for example, owning BIP lets investors stake a slice of actual infrastructure entities owned by the partnership fund. Better yet, BIP lets infrastructure bulls diversify their holdings across utilities, rail, data storage, roads, marine terminals, and more. In many cases, owning BIP is like owning the “best in class” of top infrastructure companies hand-selected by Brookfield’s experts.
True to form, the fund consistently hits 6 to 9% annual growth rates, with current projections on the higher end of the spectrum. Better yet, the company’s dividend distribution grew 8% on a compounded annual basis over the past decade, with its payout ratio ranging around 70%. Ultimately, beyond its status among election stocks, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners is a strong pick to capture global development upside.
2024 Presidential Election Stocks: RTX Corp (RTX)
Defense spending is a perennial topic among presidential candidates but, no matter how much one blusters about trimming the fat, companies like RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX) continue enjoying record government funding. Aside from a brief dip in the mid-2010s, defense spending follows a strong upward trajectory that’s unlikely to abate soon, considering the ongoing and brewing international conflict in which the U.S. continually involves itself.
Compared to other defense stocks, RTX is particularly well-suited for the current era. Beyond defense offerings under its Raytheon umbrella, the company’s diverse holdings include commercial aerospace manufacturing to bolster sales across segments. This targets another key 2024 presidential election trend: transportation. We’ve already seen airlines get their share of scrutiny in 2023, and that continued emphasis on efficiency will likely be a staple of presidential debate. If (or, realistically, when) funding is the government’s answer to the commercial airline problem, expect RTX to benefit more than most.
GoodRx Holdings (GDRX)
Reproductive health is already at the center of national debate. At the same time, telehealth providers are gaining ground post-pandemic as patients prefer chatting with providers from the comfort of their homes. These variables combine to make GoodRx Holdings (NASDAQ:GDRX) one of the top presidential election stocks. Specifically, FDA regulatory changes let online pharmacies like GoodRX dispense prescribed abortion pills in an era where other avenues become closed to patients.
Medication-based abortions make up more than half of current procedures, a fact that usually goes unaddressed in the national debate. At the same time, interest in telehealth spiked in the wake of the leaked Roe v. Wade memo, and FDA regulatory changes accelerated the trend while protecting consumers from seeking shady overseas “pharmacies” online.
GoodRX’s operational model wasn’t as successful as many planned, and shares in the telehealth company suffered this year. But, like CHPT, this could mark an opportunity if pre-election candidate concerns send patients and consumers surging to the platform.
2024 Presidential Election Stocks: Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI)
Speaking of stocking up, it’s a well-known fact that gun sales spike before and during presidential elections, no matter the candidate, but particularly when it’s a Democratic candidate in the lead. As gun seizure concerns mount, expect companies like Smith & Wesson Brands (NASDAQ:SWBI) to be prime buys for the 2024 presidential election. SWBI is also one of those perennially profitable companies that, while not massive, nevertheless offer stability to an otherwise volatile portfolio.
Better yet, for investors, recent stock strength means SWBI is also offering a respectable dividend. Its current yield sits at 4.77%, combining distributions and buybacks. But in recent years, notably around the 2020 election, the company’s total yield surged to more than 19%. Of course, past performance isn’t an indicator of future strength – but gun sale trends tend to point to upside in SWBI’s near future.
Chegg Inc (CHGG)
There’s been more turmoil over higher education in the political sphere than usual recently, so we can expect some of that controversy to bubble up into the election cycle. But what’s gone mostly unmentioned in the debate about legacy education institutions is the opportunity that self-guided, AI-driven EdTech platforms offer as an alternative. Among a handful of offerings, former textbook rental company Chegg Inc (NYSE:CHGG) stands head-and-shoulders above the competition.
Last year, the company partnered with Scale AI to develop a proprietary large-language model to port into Chegg’s existing learning assistant. Since then, the company’s AI initiatives have only accelerated, and it now offers a range of at-home and blended-learning personal assistants to help drive alternative educational outcomes.
Politics aside, I think alternative education platforms will likely be one of the biggest post-AI outcomes. Legacy education has become a “check the box” exercise in many cases and an increasingly costly one. At the same time, digital work opportunities are abundant, making self-guided education the future as more Americans reject the past institutional structures.
On the date of publication, Jeremy Flint held no position in the securities mentioned. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.